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Peter McLaughlin's avatar

I think there are two questions here which, if not quite orthogonal to each other, are certainly not perfectly aligned. Both questions involve social and epistemic expertise coming apart, but in different ways, and I think that your concluding thoughts - 'What forms of independent research generate value? Under what conditions?' - are well-served by thinking about the differences.

Near the start of the post, you write:

> Critics of independent research often focus on cases where distrust in experts seems clearly unjustified—climate change denial, flat Earthers, and so on. But what about cases where distrust in recognised expert authority might be justified?

This is a question about the epistemic expertise of social experts: what happens / ought to happen when the group of people we _do_ accord social expertise turns out _not_ to have epistemic expertise?

But then, for the rest of the post, you analyse patient activists, and the question becomes: what happens / ought to happen when the group of people we _don't_ accord social expertise turns out to _actually have_ epistemic expertise?

I think the implied link between these two questions (correct me if you had something else in mind!) is something like 'in a disagreement, at most one group is correct'. If the socially-recognised experts say P, and the patient activists say not-P, then the former group can be incorrect if and only if the latter group is correct; insofar as being wrong is evidence against expertise and being right is evidence for it, then, evidence that the patient activists are epistemic experts just is evidence that the socially-recognised experts aren't.

But there are cases where the patient activists can be demonstrating genuine epistemic expertise, without this affecting the claim to epistemic expertise from the researchers who disagree with them. I'm thinking especially of inductive risk considerations: two groups are equally intimately familiar with the subject-matter and data, but on the basis of differing understandings of the inductive risks, group A generalises to P while group B generalises to Q, where ~(P&Q).

So, for example, you highlight one particular aspect of AIDS patient activism - claims about compliance rates in double-blind trials. Frankly, this doesn't impress me all that much (although I admit this is a point where people can reasonably disagree): researchers are typically very aware of compliance issues, and there are often good reasons to insist on double-blinding regardless. I don't think this is a case where social experts were straightforwardly making an explicit claim about the quality of their data while patient activists were straightforwardly committed to the negation of that exact claim. I think rather that it's a matter of what inductive risks the two groups were willing to take. Patient activists were willing to generalise from lower-quality studies not only because they thought the benefits of double-blinding were smaller than might naively be assumed (on which point socially-recognised experts sometimes agreed!), but also because they thought the costs associated with double-blinding - not just in terms of impact on those given placebos, but also the resources and (especially) time it took to set up 'high-quality' trials - weren't worth it. Patients needed drugs more quickly than existing processes were set up to allow for, and even if that meant they got lower-quality or even ineffective treatments, that couldn't possibly be worse than 'no drugs, just die'.

In this case, I think you're completely right that many AIDS patient activists achieved genuine 'lay [epistemic] expertise'. But recognising this does not necessarily mean denying epistemic expertise to the socially-recognised experts. I think the AIDS patient activists seem commendable because we today can look back in hindsight and see that their urgency and understanding of the risks was mostly justified, while the mainstream scientific community and associated bureaucracies had a view of the risks that we don't share (in many cases because of homophobia). Of course, understanding the risks can itself be a kind of expertise, but it's a different kind of expertise: I think we'd generally want to say that a person could be an expert in infectious diseases even if their understanding of the infectious disease burden and the stakes associated with their research was completely off. And this type of expertise also doesn't come along 'for free' with lived experience; indeed, if anything it can be the opposite, as people tend to overgeneralise from the situations of those socially close to them, which can be systematically misleading.

So I guess one consideration for 'What forms of independent research generate value? Under what conditions?' is 'Are the factors relevant to inductive risk themselves subject to expertise, or are they "purely" value-driven? If the former, what communities are most likely to be able to develop expertise about the risks - and are those the same communities that we currently socially recognise as object-level experts?' I think this is tricky precisely because it's very convenient to reach for 'the right evaluation of risk will come from people with lived experience', and this was pretty much correct in the case of AIDS patient activism, but it is wrong in general (and not just because 'the right evaluation of risk' is obviously value-laden).

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Bryan Frances's avatar

All this sounds right to me. I'm glad to have learned from it.

Even so, I think your emphasis is a bit skewed. There are zillions of people out there who won't trust what their doctors, for instance, say about minor matters like their sore throat, their diarrhea, a nasty scratch on their kid's arm, and so on. They "do their own research" on Reddit or TikTok, and are led wildly astray. That's the worry I have about DYOR.

This is not the worry about "the wackiest bunch of YouTube conspiracy theorists you can think of", as you put it. This isn't conspiracy nonsense. It's more tame but significantly more prevalent than that.

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